How Senior Leaders Used the HORIZN Simulation to Explore Strategy Under Uncertainty

The logistics industry operates in an environment shaped by volatility, disruption, and long planning horizons. Geopolitical shifts, evolving trade routes, digitalisation, and sustainability pressures mean that strategy can no longer rely on linear forecasts or historical trends alone.

To strengthen strategic foresight and long-term thinking, a logistics organisation partnered with AEQLIA to integrate the HORIZN Strategy & Foresight Business Simulation into a programme for its senior leaders. The aim was to support leaders in developing more robust strategies by exploring multiple future scenarios—an essential capability for future-ready leadership in complex systems.

The Strategic Context

Senior leaders participating in the programme were responsible for making long-term strategic decisions in a context defined by:

• Increasing uncertainty across global supply chains

• Rapid technological and automation advances

• Geopolitical and regulatory volatility

• Rising expectations around resilience and sustainability

• Long investment cycles with irreversible commitments

While strategic planning processes were in place, leaders needed space to step back from short-term optimisation and examine how different futures could reshape strategic choices.

The HORIZN Strategy & Foresight Simulation

The HORIZN Business Simulation was designed to immerse leaders in a future-oriented logistics scenario where foresight, not prediction, was the central capability.

Participants were required to:

• Identify early signals of change across markets, technology, and regulation

• Explore alternative future scenarios and stress-test strategic options

• Make strategic decisions under deep uncertainty

• Balance near-term performance with long-term positioning

• Align leadership perspectives around strategic priorities

The simulation deliberately avoided “correct” answers, encouraging leaders to examine assumptions, challenge dominant narratives, and build strategic flexibility.

What the Experience Revealed

The simulation surfaced insights that are difficult to access through traditional strategy discussions.

Leaders experienced:

• How implicit assumptions limit strategic thinking

• The risks of over-reliance on single-future planning

• The value of foresight in improving the quality of strategic debate

• How early choices can constrain or enable future options

For many participants, the experience reframed foresight from a theoretical exercise into a practical input into strategy.

The Impact

By the end of the programme, senior leaders reported:

• A stronger appreciation of foresight as a strategic capability

• Improved ability to link future scenarios to present-day decisions

• More constructive and forward-looking strategic conversations

• Greater confidence in navigating uncertainty at the enterprise level

The shared experience also helped create a common language around foresight, strengthening alignment in strategic discussions.

From Planning to Preparedness

By integrating the HORIZN Strategy & Foresight Simulation into its leadership programme, the organisation enabled senior leaders to move from predicting the future to preparing for it.

The experience reinforced a critical insight: in a volatile logistics environment, effective strategy is less about certainty and more about preparedness, adaptability, and informed choice.